October Avoids Record Dry Mark

As October drew to a close, much of Oklahoma had gone over a month without significant moisture—and for some areas, over two months. A new record for the all-time driest October seemed inevitable. However, a remarkable storm on October 30 changed that trajectory, bringing much-needed rain and a severe weather threat. A confirmed EF1 tornado touched down near Fairland in Ottawa County, damaging homes and destroying outbuildings along an 8-mile path, according to a preliminary report from the National Weather Service. This event brought Oklahoma's 2024 tornado count to 113, the fourth-highest annual total since records began in 1950, with 2019 holding the record at 149. The annual average is 57.5.

The storm also generated powerful winds, with a gust of 96 mph recorded at the Oklahoma Mesonet site in Marshall, and several other sites clocking gusts over 70 mph. Numerous reports of downed power lines, damaged roofs, and fallen trees surfaced from impacted areas. Despite these impacts, the rain was the storm's most valuable contribution, with parts of northern and eastern Oklahoma receiving 1–2 inches overnight.

A cold front associated with the system ushered in more seasonable weather, helping alleviate the spread and intensification of flash drought that had flourished during an unusually warm and dry October. Southwestern Oklahoma endured its warmest October on record, with temperatures averaging 7.5 degrees above normal, alongside its seventh-driest October. Drought coverage statewide rose from 61% to 84% during the month according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, with the higher intensify drought area increasing from 37% to 68%. Typical drought impacts emerged, including reports of dry farm ponds, withered crops, and delays in winter wheat planting. Wildfires broke out in late October, fueled by gusty winds over 50 mph, scorching more than 15,000 acres. In Logan County, a fire forced evacuations and destroyed at least six homes near the Twin Lakes Community. Kingfisher County saw four homes lost to fire, with evacuations in its southeast corner, while a large fire in the Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge burned over 12,000 acres.

The statewide average temperature for October, based on preliminary Oklahoma Mesonet data, was 67.8 degrees—6.5 degrees above normal—ranking as the third-warmest October on record. Temperatures ranged from 99 degrees at Mangum on Oct. 3 and 12, to 24 degrees at Seiling on Oct. 16. That date also saw the season’s first freeze, as a strong cold front pushed temperatures below 32 degrees at Mesonet sites across northern Oklahoma. Despite this seasonal shift, nearly half of the 120 Mesonet sites stayed above freezing for the month, with Eva spending the most time below freezing at 15 hours. While October saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees recorded 1,037 times at Mesonet sites, the freezing mark was only reached 85 times. The January–October period ranked as Oklahoma’s third-warmest on record, averaging 66 degrees—2.5 degrees above normal.

Statewide precipitation for October averaged 0.84 inches, 2.52 inches below normal, ranking it as the 11th-driest October since records began in 1895. Rainfall totals ranged from 2.75 inches in Miami to no rain at all at six western Mesonet sites. An additional 66 sites recorded an inch or less, and only nine sites reported at least 2 inches, leaving much of the state with precipitation deficits of 2–5 inches. Only Kenton reported a surplus, with 2.08 inches—0.9 inches above normal. The September–October period was exceptionally dry, ranking as the fifth-driest with an average of 2.41 inches—4.27 inches below normal. For January–October, the statewide average precipitation was 26.96 inches, 4.97 inches below normal, ranking as the 40th-driest period on record.

The Climate Prediction Center’s November outlooks offer hope, with increased odds for above-normal precipitation, especially across north-central and northeastern Oklahoma, bolstered by forecasts of heavy rain early in the month. The temperature outlook indicates a higher probability of above-normal temperatures, particularly in the southeastern half of the state. The CPC’s November drought outlook foresees drought improvement, with potential elimination in some areas currently experiencing drought.